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Saudi Arabia’s nursing workforce could grow from about 226,580 nurses in 2026 to 340,295 by 2040, and Saudi nationals could reach rough parity with foreign nurses around 2039, according to a forecasting study published in BMC Nursing on 13 November 2026. For the thousands of Filipino and other international nurses who work in the Kingdom, the findings suggest demand will keep growing even as Saudization advances.
Key points
- Projected total: 340,295 nurses by 2040 (95% prediction interval 299,197 to 381,393), growing about 2.9% a year.
- Saudi nurses are projected to reach 171,432 by 2040.
- In the central forecast, Saudi and foreign nurse numbers cross over around 2039 (about 166,900 Saudi vs 166,200 foreign nurses).
- The authors warn that low output of new Saudi nursing graduates could slow progress.
What the study found
Researchers Abbas Al Mutair, Muhammad Daniyal, Abbas Shamsan, and Hibah Abdulrahim Bahri used Ministry of Health and World Bank data on Saudi Arabia’s nursing workforce from 2007 to 2025. They built time-series (ARIMA) models to project numbers by nationality, gender, and sector up to 2040, and tested accuracy by back-testing against past years.
| Measure | Projection |
|---|---|
| Total nurses, 2026 baseline | 226,580 |
| Total nurses, 2040 | 340,295 (95% PI 299,197 to 381,393) |
| Saudi nurses, 2040 | 171,432 (95% PI 150,349 to 192,515) |
| Approximate Saudi-foreign parity | Around 2039 |
| Saudi female nurses in Ministry of Health facilities, 2040 | 123,598 |
| Saudi female nurses in the private sector, 2040 | 5,234 |
| Annual growth rate | About 2.9% |
The study also reports a nurse density of 6.09 per 1,000 people and only 11 new nursing graduates per 100,000 inhabitants. The authors say this low graduate output threatens sustained growth in Saudi nurses, and they call for recruitment policy to be paired with a supportive work environment so national nurses stay in the profession.
What this means for international nurses
Saudization, the policy of increasing the share of Saudi citizens in the workforce, is a key part of Vision 2030. But the forecast suggests foreign nurses will still make up about half of the workforce for more than a decade, because total demand is rising.
- Demand stays strong: an extra 110,000 or so nurses by 2040 in the central forecast means continued recruitment.
- The private sector relies most on foreign staff: the projected number of Saudi women in private-sector nursing is small compared with the Ministry of Health, so private hospitals are likely to keep recruiting abroad.
- Specialist skills help: the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties (SCFHS) now offers Saudi Board final written exams twice a year in several nursing specialties, including adult critical care, emergency, cardiac care, adult oncology, neonatal critical care, midwifery, and home healthcare nursing, a sign of the push to build specialist capacity.
Caveats
The authors’ model extrapolates past trends and does not directly model policy shifts such as new Saudization quotas. The prediction intervals for Saudi and foreign nurses overlap a lot, so the parity year could come earlier or later than 2039. The paper is also an early-access version that may be edited before final publication.
A separate 2025 study in Human Resources for Health found that Saudi nationals made up 44.22% of the nursing workforce in 2023, and that nurse numbers per 1,000 people varied widely across regions, from 3.13 to 9.89. Workforce growth, in other words, has not been even across the country.
Frequently asked questions
Will Saudization stop hiring of foreign nurses?
The forecast does not suggest that. Total demand is projected to rise by about 2.9% a year, and foreign nurses remain roughly half of the workforce until around 2039 in the central estimate. Specific rules can change, so check current Ministry of Health and employer requirements before applying.
Who wrote the study?
The study was written by Abbas Al Mutair, Muhammad Daniyal, Abbas Shamsan, and Hibah Abdulrahim Bahri, and published open access in BMC Nursing on 13 November 2026.
Related on Nurses Notes
- Nurse understaffing and patient mortality study
- Philippine Nursing Education Roadmap 2030
- Nursing jobs and migration news
Sources
- Forecasting the Saudi nursing workforce: a detailed quantitative analysis of Saudization, gender, and sectoral distribution towards the future. Al Mutair A, Daniyal M, Shamsan A, Bahri HA. BMC Nursing (13 November 2026).
- Inequalities in the distribution of the nursing workforce in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: a regional analysis. Kattan W, Al-Hanawi MK. Human Resources for Health (2025).
- Saudi Commission for Health Specialties offers Saudi Board final written examinations twice a year. SCFHS (26 October 2026).
This summary is for information only and does not replace official guidance or advice from a qualified professional. It is not legal or immigration advice.
